A: counts as 1 or 11. While the round is going on, it is crucial to know when to stop or, conversely, continue to take cards. This way, counting cards gives the player an advantage by informing them about the cards that are left in the deck. Here is the most popular way of counting cards in blackjack.
“Let’s hit the cas” are a string of words guaranteed to fire up a bit of excitement and a hint of nervous energy through the group. Instantly, the tantalising (though unlikely) prospect of winning big comes to mind, quickly reinforced by the memory of your mate Dazza’s big win on Roulette last month.
As it turns out, Australians shelled out $181 billion at domestic casinos and gaming venues in the 2017-18 financial year, equivalent to more than $9,100 per person over the age of 18. This is an alarming number given the fact that only 39% of people admit to being regular gamblers. Of that money spent, roughly $20 billion was lost.
At the core of all casinos and their success is the law of probability. It is their bread and butter and the lifeblood of their cash cow. Put simply, casinos offer a game with rules that place the odds slightly in their favour. Some people will win and some people will lose, but in the long run the casino will always accrue more money that it loses. The best example of this is betting on a number in Roulette. A correct bet on a number attracts a payout 1:35, but there are a total of 38 numbers on the American wheels commonly found in Australian casinos, thus creating a house margin of 5.26%. In Blackjack, the house margin is around 0.5% assuming the player uses perfect ‘basic strategy’, but actually sits closer to 2% when accounting for a range of skill levels.
But what if you could influence these odds to increase your chances of winning? Enter the method of how to count cards, a highly glamourised Blackjack technique used to beat casinos at their own game. Ever since Hollywood trotted out an autistic Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man and an arguably handicapped Zach Galifinakis in The Hangover, the general public seems to think you need to either be on the spectrum or a true genius to keep track of playing cards. In reality, it’s much easier.
Blackjack is unique in that it can be legally beaten. It is the only game in the casino where past outcomes can influence future outcomes. If you think that betting on red after five black numbers in Roulette is smart, please stop reading.
Realistically, there is no way to know for certain which card will be drawn next, but the art of counting cards hinges on giving you a hint of what it might be. By having an idea of what cards remain to be dealt, we are able to increase our probability of making a good call.
The basic premise is as follows:
As cards from the shoe (finite numbers of decks from which cards may be dealt from, usually six) are dealt, we are given information about which cards remain. For example, if we see six King of Spades drawn, we know that there is now no chance of a further King of Spades being drawn until the shoe is finished.
By taking notice of the cards that have already been dealt, we can start making guesses on what remains with greater accuracy. Card counting, or at least the method we will discuss here, simplifies this concept by focusing on low and high cards as groups, rather than getting into specifics.
Inherently, high-number cards are more desirable in Blackjack because they make it easier to achieve a result closer to 21. When there are a greater proportion of high-number cards remaining in the shoe than low-number cards, the shoe is ‘running hot’ and we want to increase the size of our bets. Conversely, more low-number cards remaining to be dealt means the shoe is ‘running cold’ because it is easier for the dealer to draw a good hand, and we should decrease the size of our bets.
In terms of keeping track of what cards have been dealt, the following method can be used. This is the actual ‘counting’, and it’s the part that gets most hopeful punters into a tailspin. That said, it’s easier than one would think if you’re willing to put in some time, effort and a fair bit of practice.
This is called the ‘High-Low’ method. We segregate the cards into three groups by number, then assign that group a value as follows:
As cards are dealt throughout the game, calculate the sum of the assigned values. For example, consider the below hands:
As the game progresses and we add each hand’s value to the Running Count, we may see the Running Count going heavily negative or positive. A negative Running Count means there are more low-number, undesirable cards remaining to be dealt. A positive Running Count means there are more high-number, desirable cards to be dealt.
The True Count is the Running Count adjusted for how many decks remain to be dealt from the shoe. A high Running Count means very little if only one of six decks have been dealt from the shoe because it represents a small sample size of the total card pool.
To calculate the True Count at any given time, divide the Running Count by the number of decks remaining. For example, if we have a Running Count of +9 and there are 3 decks remaining, the True Count is +3.
Firstly, a player needs to establish what their betting unit is, which is based on their total bankroll. A betting unit’s size relative to a bankroll is key for ensuring a player doesn’t run out of cash. Assuming perfect play, a 1:400 betting unit to bankroll ratio gives a player a 40% chance of running out of money. At 1:1000, that chance of ruin shrinks to 1%.
When assessing a betting strategy, it’s important to remember that counting is only effective in the long run, which means grinding for hours at the table. A True Count of +10 (the table is running as hot as Margot Robbie) is actually only a 4.5% edge for the player, so there’s no point throwing the house on the next hand.
There are endless strategies on how to adjust bet sizes based on the True Count, but a decent basic tactic is to bet your betting unit multiplied by the True Count plus one. For example, if your betting unit is $10 and the True Count is +3, then your bet is $10 * (1+3) = $40. When the true count is negative or zero, bet one unit.
Now for the big caveat: most Australian casinos shuffle the shoe using machines between each hand, thus rendering effective card counting impossible. However, traditional shoes are still found at high roller tables and in private rooms, where table minimum bets can be as low as $50.
Interestingly, plenty of casinos in the US stick with traditional shoes that make card counting possible despite the risk because they’ve found that the revenue from people who attempt and fail to count cards outweighs the losses from successful counters, if policed strictly.
In terms of countermeasures, casinos and their dealers are adept at spotting card counting. A dealer will generally signal their suspicions to a pit boss, who will monitor the situation. If you are suspected of counting cards, the casino may reshuffle the deck early, limit your maximum bet, or ask you to quit playing. The hardest part of counting cards isn’t actually executing the technique, but rather going about your business undetected. A player betting large amounts in perfect proportion to the count will generally be picked up by a casino with alarming haste.
So what happens if you get caught? Well, the good news is that you haven’t broken the law, provided your cash was gainfully earned. Card counting using the above method isn’t a crime because you are playing a private game of chance offered by the casino with a set of rules. There is very little legal precedent in Australia and even the US, with casinos choosing mostly to deal with issues in-house. At worst, players are usually asked to leave and refused entry in the future. The above is a general suggestion only and shouldn’t be taken as advice or relied upon.
If this guide on how to count cards seems a bit complicated, you could always follow in the footsteps of this Crown casino dealer who made millions by eavesdropping on gamblers’ stock picks.
Card counting is a system that experienced blackjack players use to get a profitable advantage over the casino. There are many individual “counts” or systems. Many of them are named after colorful professional gamblers from times past.
The 2008 movie “21” bought card counting to the attention of the general public. It followed the true story of members of the MIT blackjack team as they won millions from casinos in LasVegas. This movie also highlighted the key challenge faced by card counters. To make a profit using these systems, you need to bet significantly more when the odds turn in your favor. Casinos are aware of this — and will quickly ban players they believe are counting cards.
This page has everything you need to know to get started with card counting. Below you will find the basics of how it works. Famoussystems, the ideal games for counters and how online blackjack can help you learn to count are also covered below.
Blackjack is a game of incomplete information. Players act based on their own two cards and the single dealer up-card. Players must risk busting in many situations, even though the decisions are mathematically correct.
Small cards are the enemy of blackjack players. Values of two through six can make for the trickiest decisions. In fact, if you remove any significant number of small cards from the shoe, blackjack not only becomes easier, the player gets a mathematical edge over the house.
This is where card counting comes in.
Counters track the proportion of small cards to face cards and aces. At a certain point, the deck turns “positive.” The higher proportion of face cards means every hand played will generate long term profit for the player — not the house. This is because profit comes from doubling, splitting and hitting blackjack (natural21). All of these are more frequent when there are more high cards in the shoe.
To take advantage of this edge, counting players must boost their bet size. Without this bet size boost, money spent playing while waiting for the deck to turn positive would cancel out any wins.
There are multiple factors that affect whether a specific game is a candidate for card counting. The number of decks of cards in play, the rules on splitting and doubling down, and how the dealer reacts to a soft 17 all come into play. To get the best from counting cards, you need to find the games with the lowest house edge.
Card counting systems have three levels of complexity. The simplest systems are Hi-LoCounts. You count low cards as +1 and high cards as -1. The higher the count, the bigger the proportion of high cards to low cards.
Advantage players will increase their bets once a specific count is reached. To be sure that they have an advantage, they need to translate the current total into the “true count” first. This involves dividing the count by the number of decks still in play. If the count is +10, with five decks remaining in a six-deck shoe, then the “true count” is 10/5 = 2. This means games like double-deck blackjack are better for counting. Players do not need to play through those first decks in the shoe while waiting for the true count to be positive.
Level two and level three counting systems are more accurate. They assign +2 to some cards and +1 to others. This splits the twos and sevens from cards three throughsix, with some systems also counting nines differently. There are systems with separate counts for aces. Your bet sizes need to increase in line with the positive count — for example adding a unit every time the true count increases by two points.
If you are new to cardcounting, then a simple Hi-Lo Count is the place to start. Once you have mastered keeping track of the count while playing each hand perfectly and chatting with the other players, you will be ready to move to the next level.
The systems below range from level one to three. These are five of hundreds of possible systems, giving you an overview of how different systems vary in their complexity.
Big casino resorts in Las Vegas, AtlanticCity, downtown Detroit and elsewhere run a wide selection of blackjack games. At the lowest buy-ins (typically $5 and up per hand), the rules give the casino a huge edge over theplayers. Examples include paying 6:5 instead of 3:2 for blackjack, limiting doubles after splits and having the dealer hit on soft 17. These unfavorable rules can easily boost the house edge to 3% or even more. With six or eight decks, getting a true count can be difficult.
Contrast this with the best games. An ideal setup is a single deck game, with liberal splitting/doubling rules, dealer standing on soft 17, late surrender and 3:2 for blackjack. With a house edge of 0.5% orless, these games are restricted to the high-limit rooms. This type of game is most likely to be closely monitored. Suddenly increasing your bet would be an instant trigger for experienced casino staff to watch closely.
Successful counters look for games with the lowest natural houseedge. They know the basic blackjack card counting strategy perfectly, so as not to give any edge back to the casino in the form of mistakes. If you do not know how to adapt blackjack strategy to subtle differences in the rules, then you are not yet ready to learn card counting techniques.
Counting cards is legal, unless you are using a mechanical or electronic device to help you keep track of the cards. Casinos do not want card counters in their games. People who are suspected of counting will be asked to leave the casino. Repeat offenses can see players banned — with trespass laws coming into effect if they attempt to return.
In 1979, Ken Uston took a casino in Atlantic City to court, challenging its right to ban “skilled” players. The court found in his favor. Rather than banning players, AC casinos now implement measures to stop card counting from working. They include regularshuffling, limiting players to flat bet sizes on each shoe and not allowing players to join a game mid-shoe.
Elsewhere, casinos will quickly ban players caught counting. This was the reason that the MIT team played in pairs. One player (betting small) would keep count, then signal to the big bet player when the count was positive. This player could then join the table, betting big amounts, while the original counter continued with smaller bets.
Very few casino games use a shoe containing several decks of cards. Casino poker variations like Caribbean stud or Ultimate Texas Hold ’em have a continual shuffle system, where a fresh shuffled deck is used for each hand. Baccarat does use a shoe, though it is not suitable for counting due to the complex scoring rules. Edge sorting is used in baccarat, though it is considered illegal in many jurisdictions.
This leaves blackjack variations like Spanish 21 and Free Bet Blackjack as the only candidates for card counting systems. Many variations of blackjack have a higher house edge than the main game. Spanish 21 removes 10s from the deck — starting the count on a negative.
Experienced advantage players use card counting to beat optional side bets. This requires a separate understanding of how each side bet works, with a counting system developed separately. Separate aces counts in blackjack can determine when the insurance against dealer blackjack bet becomes profitable.
Online casinos in regulated states have both live dealer and software-based blackjack options. They also have a range of games with different rules and side bets. Add in the game variations based on the 21 concept — and you will find a wide array of choices.
Advantage play through card counting is not possible at online casinos. Software based games use random number generator software to shuffle the cards for every hand. This means no count is possible. Live dealer games that are dealt in real time use eight deck shoes. What they do differently from brick and mortar casinos is reshuffle after around half of the cards are dealt. This makes it hard to spot situations where there is a positive true count. Add to this software that will instantly detect the bet sizing changes associated with counting.
What you can effectively do online is practice your counting skills. There are live dealer rooms at many of the biggest online casino brands, including Golden Nugget and BetMGM. You can enjoy a game and learn to keep score of the count while you play. Starting with simple systems like Ace-Five and Hi-Lo is ideal — you can move on to the more advanced systems as you gain experience.
If you live in a state with legal online casinos, make sure you keep a close eye on the casino bonus and promotion offers. You never know when a bonus aimed at blackjack players will become available.
Card counting has been a part of blackjack since the1960s. Famous players including Humble and Uston published books on beating the house. Many of them are now considered among the classics of gambling literature.
Counting cards in blackjack gives you an edge over the house when there are relatively more high cards in the deck. This takes advantage of the player’s option to split, double down and to take insurance against dealer blackjack. Counting systems are graded into three levels, depending on their complexity. More complex systems are more accurate — though harder to use.
There is an Achilles’ heel for card counters. To make your knowledge of the count profitable, you need to significantly boost your bet sizes when the odds are in your favor. These bet size increases are a flag to casino staff to watch your play closely — which leads to card counters being banned. Card counting is not illegal, unless you use a device to help you keep track.
Online casinos are the perfect place to practice your card counting skills. You will not be able to get an advantage from them — as safeguards are in place. Live dealer casinos show a real table, making this the ideal way to find the right card counting system for you ahead of your next visit to a brick and mortar casino.