There is a certain reverence that we pay to the greats. It often lasts far beyond their usefulness. It ignores or exaggerates their faults and their inevitable decline because we need to believe in greatness for our own sake. People who are otherwise ordinary will have their every action and opinion somehow treated as important because they have excelled in one thing. Icons are subjected to hagiography and hatchet jobs while they are still alive. Where some can only see what existed at its zenith, others take the inevitable toll of time as proof that they were never much to begin with. Seldom do we have the compassion to treat them as the people they are in that moment.
At 39 years old, Manny Pacquiao (59-7-2, 38 KO) is a full time senator in the Philippines, and a part time fighter. And after an incomprehensibly long run as one of the very best fighters in the sport, he has become an ordinary welterweight. The fighter who lost an atrocious decision to Jeff Horn last year is pretty good, but nothing special. The fighter who enters the ring Saturday night (Sunday morning local) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia against Lucas Matthysse may be more faded still. As evidence of Pacquiao’s physical and financial decline, the bout is under his own promotional banner instead of Top Rank’s, and it’s being aired on the ESPN+ app. A far cry for a man who headlined the largest grossing fight in boxing history just three years ago. And to add insult to injury, Pacquiao’s star has dimmed enough that there has been a noted dearth of think pieces about his “problematic” political views and cozy relationship with batshit crazy Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte in the build up.
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This week there has been no shortage of video compilations showing Pacquiao as he was: a grinning human pinball, if that pinball had been filled with high explosives. He was chaos personified, a speed demon of questionable balance that could hit you with either hand so fast that the opponent had no clue where he’d be next, and occasionally it appeared Pacquiao himself was unsure but thrilled to be on the ride.
He’s gone now. Where once was a smiling gunslinger now resides a tired body, playing the hands that have been dealt and hoping for a good run of luck to swell his pockets, trying to be something he knows he can’t, because his gift is gone and he has no others. What he has left is grit and his name. How much use they are in the ring remains to be seen.
Lucas Matthysse (39-4, 36 KO) never became quite what we hoped he would be. Despite a long run at the top of the junior welterweight division, the Argentine was always limited. His power is undeniable, but it is more of the sledgehammer than explosive variety. Throughout his career, he has battered anyone who was not world class, and engaged in some absurd slugfests. However, he has fallen short against the very best opponents he’s faced, including debatable split decision losses to Zab Judah and Devon Alexander, a hotly contested unanimous decision loss to Danny Garcia, and being stopped by Viktor Postol. Of those, only the Postol loss is recent, but it is the most telling. Matthysse’s kryptonite has always been speed and length, which Postol had plenty of, but in that fight, by the later rounds, Matthysse simply looked like he didn’t want to be in the ring anymore. It may have been a hangover from his barbaric war with Ruslan Provodnikov six months earlier, it may have been age, it may have been frustration at eating long-range counterpunches all night, or it may have been all of the above. Whatever the cause, when the moment came, Matthysse decided he’d had enough.
Following his loss to Postol, Matthysse did not fight again for a year and a half. His two bouts since returning have been at welterweight, beating up and then stopping journeyman Emmanuel Taylor and largely unknown Thai Tewa Kiram for the secondary strap of a secondary alphabet organization. It’s the belt he acquired from Kiram that has earned him this payday against Pacquiao.
For many years, this fight would’ve been a mismatch. Matthysse’s power was never enough to overcome his speed and technical deficiencies against a Pacquiao who was anywhere near peak. But Pacquiao isn’t anywhere near peak. Not even in the same region. The question is whether he is so much more faded than Matthysse that they find themselves on equal terms, and I think that is exactly what has happened.
Pacquiao did not retain trainer Freddie Roach for this fight, opting instead to work with long time foot warmer and friend Buboy Fernandez, who is not actually a trainer. It has been a bit of a running joke, and if you’ve watched the videos emanating from their camp, it’s easy to see why. There seems to be no coherent strategy, and Pacquiao has looked slow and flat-footed. Where once he would explode forward with a ballistic 1-2 before spinning to his right and ejecting himself out of range, there are steps and turns. The distances he could erase and create with his speed have halved, and the time necessary to do it has doubled. So too has the shock of his power. He’s not catching anyone off guard anymore, and he’s not too hard to hit. Matthysse is still largely himself. He’s older and slower, but he’s never relied on speed, and he can still punch.
Expect a now fully human Pacquiao to fight much as he did against Horn, circling and firing one punch at a time, with combinations thrown in for seasoning, especially if Matthysse takes a backward step. Matthysse will plod forward behind his jab, looking to land something hurtful, and turn up the heat when Pacquiao backs to the ropes. It’s those times Pacquiao allows himself to be backed against the ropes or into a corner that will decide the fight. That is Matthysse’s preferred offensive location, and his power is at its most damaging when he can come forward as he punches. Pacquiao no longer has the legs or speed to use these locations as a trap, so there won’t be ambushes. Instead, they will have to fight toe to toe, which is when things get fun. Manny Pacquiao may be human finally, but he is still all fighter, and these two should produce some brutal exchanges. The winner will be whoever can convince the other man he can’t win.
Prediction: Matthysse by hard fought decision, with at least one ridiculous card.
(KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYASIA— Manny Pacquiao (l) poses with Lucas Matthysse during a press conference for their fight at Axiata Arena on July 15; Photo by Yam G-Jun/AP)
By Sev Sarkisian: Legend, icon and future hall of famer Manny Pacquiao (59-7-2) will make his
long-awaited return to the ring this summer in a blockbuster matchup against hard-hitting
reigning WBA world welterweight champion Lucas Matthysse (39-4) on July 14 th (US Time). This
global event will take place in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia and is promoted by Manny Pacquiao
Promotions in association with Top Rank and Golden Boy Promotions. This event will be
available exclusively on ESPN+ app in the United States.
Manny Pacquiao is undoubtedly one of the best fighters of this generation and to this day one
of the biggest stars in the sport. He is also one of the most exciting fighters to watch, the
Filipino legend is never in a dull fight and has always been an offensive-minded fighter
throughout his entire career. Stylistically, Pacquiao is an in and out fighter with high punch
volume and blazing hand speed. He fights out of the southpaw stance and is about 5’5 in
height and possesses a 67” reach. He currently has arguably the most impressive resume in the
sport out of any current active boxer. He holds wins over the likes of Erik Morales (twice),
Marco Antonio Barrera (twice), Oscar De La Hoya, Miguel Cotto, Juan Manuel Marquez (twice),
Antonio Margarito and many more. Pacquiao is going into this big fight at the advanced age of
39 and over a year layoff from the sport. He is also preparing for this fight without longtime
head trainer Freddy Roach and is using his best friend and longtime second Buboy. However,
given all of these major factors going on, he seems to be looking sharp and fast in all the training
footage I have seen of him getting ready for this fight.
Lucas Matthysse, on the other hand, is a true knockout artist with power in both hands.
Matthysse is also one of the best Jr welterweights of this generation and has now moved up to
welterweight and captured a vacant title in his last fight. Matthysse holds quality wins over the
likes of Lamont Peterson, John Molina, Ruslan Provodnikov, Emmanuel Taylor and many others.
However, I believe Matthysse might just be a little too slow to win enough rounds to get a
decision win over Pacquiao. I believe if Matthysse is going to win it will have to be with a
knockout, which is obviously possible given the fact that Lucas has the has the eraser in his
hands. I am certainly looking forward to this fight and expect to see an explosive fight given the
circumstances around this fight and the two styles.