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Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday, December 19, 2020 – 12:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
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Stakes of the Matchup
The 5-0 and 4th ranked Ohio State Buckeyes host the 6-1 and the 14th ranked Northwestern Wildcats in the Big Ten Championship this Saturday. Ohio State is projected to easily win, but they are usually projected to win easily. The NCAA Football odds have been released for Saturday’s game, and the Buckeyes are favored by 20.5 points at some of the best sportsbooks. OSU is obviously should be favored to win, but I believe Northwestern will keep the score closer than expected.
Northwestern has been a surprise this season as they are typically a borderline top 25 team. They beat Wisconsin 17-7 outright as 7.5 point underdogs and have one of the best defenses in college football this year. Win or lose, I think they keep the Ohio State offense at bay. I think there is a chance that the Wildcats pull off the epic upset.
How Northwestern and Ohio State Will Matchup
The Big Ten is known for its defense and that is why it is not surprising that this year’s conference championship features two defensive powerhouses. Northwestern allows only 14.6 points per game which is the 3rd lowest in the FBS, and the lowest out of all power five schools.
Ohio State also has a strong defense that allows only 23.2 points per game, the 34th lowest in the FBS. For the Buckeyes to cover the spread, they would have to perform exceptionally well against Wildcats defense. Additionally, OSU probably has to limit NW to fewer than 14 points. I think both are unlikely and that is why the Northwestern spread is a no brainer as a bet. Additionally, NW could limit OSU’s offense and win a low scoring game.
There are two reasons why Ohio State is heavily favored despite Northwestern’s defense. The first reason is that OSU is popular among the betting public, so the linemakers must shade the lines. The second reason is because the Buckeyes average 46.6 points per game which is the 4th highest in the FBS, and the second highest among power five teams.
One reason why Ohio State’s offense is so good is because it led by Heisman hopeful and quarterback Justin Fields. Fields has a completion percentage of 78.1% which is the highest of any FBS quarterback. Unfortunately for Fields, Northwestern’s passing defense allows opposing quarterbacks to complete only 51.31% of their passes the 4th lowest in the FBS, and lowest of any power five school. If Fields can be contained by the Wildcats, they will have to rely on their rushing offense against a Wildcat defense which only allows 3.8 yards per carry, the 35th lowest in the FBS.
Prediction
Ncaa Longshot Picks Odds
Ohio State is a great team, but they have padded their stats against weak opponents in a shortened schedule. In their one game against a top-10 team, the Buckeyes were favored by 21 points against Indiana. In that game Indiana lost by only a touchdown. If Ohio State beats Northwestern, I think that it will be like the Indiana game where they win by only one or two touchdowns. That is why I am backing the Northwestern spread at 20.5 points with my NCAAF picks.
While Ohio State should be favored to win, there is enormous value in betting on Northwestern to win. I think there is a plausible chance that NW performs very well on defense and wins a close low-scoring game. That is why I am also betting that Northwestern wins outright against Ohio State.
Ncaa Longshot Picks
NCAAF Picks:Northwestern +20.5 (-109) & Northwestern Moneyline (+730) at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review)