On May 28, 2017, the UFC returns to Sweden, where number one light heavyweight contender Alexander Gustafsson takes on the number two light heavyweight contender Glover Teixeira, presumably with a title shot on the line. Read on to learn the five factors bettors should consider when deciding which fighter to bet on.
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 odds & betting lines. UFC/MMA odds comparison service. Compare the latest UFC/MMA fight odds and betting lines from the top online sportsbooks. Submission of the Week: Gustafsson vs Te Huna. Alexander Gustafsson won six-straight UFC fights en route to his title shot against Jon Jones at UFC 165. Check out the second win in the streak as Gustafsson uses a rear-naked choke to finish James Te Huna at UFC 127.
When Daniel Cormier defeated Anthony Johnson at UFC 210, the speculation over who his next opponent would begin immediately. Johnson’s announcement that he was retiring probably didn’t affect the next title match since it was Johnson’s second loss to Cormier, but it certainly affected the light heavyweight rankings.
Where Johnson was previously the number one contender, his name is now gone from those lists. Ascending into his slot is Alexander Gustafsson (1.384*) the Swedish one-time wunderkind's record has recently suffered from matches with Johnson, Cormier and Jon Jones. Moving up to number two was Glover Teixeira (3.260*), whose record has suffered a similar fate with losses to Jones, Johnson and Bellator light heavyweight champion Phil Davis (Gustafsson’s other career loss).
Gustafsson has the height and reach advantage, not to mention the home crowd advantage in Stockholm and history has regarded him as the superior fighter.
Cormier is set to face Jones at UFC 214 in July, but Jones' recently spotty record could mean a busy summer for the winner of this one. Should Jones be removed from the equation (again), Cormier would need an opponent and the winner of this match is the natural choice. Even if UFC 214 goes off without a hitch, there’s only so much Cormier vs Jones (they fought once before) promotion the fight world can take.
Gustafsson vs. Teixeira is a battle for the presumed title shot and second-tier supremacy. Two fighters with phenomenal records against everyone except the elite will decide which of them might still be worth that tag themselves. For the winner? Probably another title shot. For the loser? Probably the end of hope for the same.
Alex Gustafsson’s recent betting odds at Pinnacle:
Name (Date) | Open | Highest | Lowest | Close | Result |
Jan Blachowicz (9/3/2016) | 1.19 | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.18 | Win |
Daniel Cormier (10/3/2015) | 3.65 | 3.85 | 3.09 | 3.51 | Loss |
Anthony Johnson (1/24/2015) | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.31 | 1.40 | Loss |
Glover Teixeira’s recent betting odds at Pinnacle:
Name (Date) | Open | Highest | Lowest | Close | Result |
Jared Cannonier (2/11/2017) | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.43 | 1.50 | Win |
Anthony Johnson (8/20/2016) | 2.80 | 3.05 | 2.39 | 2.93 | Loss |
Rashad Evans (4/16/2016) | 1.59 | 1.59 | 1.46 | 1.53 | Win |
The difference in esteem with which bettors behold the two fighters is evident here. First, in the respective Johnson fights Gustafsson was regarded as a solid favourite, Teixeira a solid underdog and second in the betting in both fighter's most recent bouts. Neither Blachowicz nor Cannonier is a top 10 light heavyweight and while Gustafsson was a monster favourite over the former, Teixeira was barely rated a favourite at all against the latter.
It’s interesting to note that in each fighter’s second-to-last bouts, there was massive action on them late before a pre-fight bounce back. Gustafsson’s low vs Cormier and Teixeira’s against Johnson occurred on the day of their respective fights. That may suggest the possibility of an arbitrage opportunity later in this market if there’s an extreme move.
Gustafsson | Name | Teixeira |
6’5” | Height | 6’2” |
79” | Reach | 76” |
205 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
17-4 | Record | 26-5 |
10 | Wins by KO | 15 |
3 | Wins by Sub | 7 |
1 | Losses by KO | 2 |
1 | Losses by Sub | 0 |
More than any fighter in the light heavyweight division, Alex Gustafsson wants to keep fights standing and is built to accomplish that. At 6’5” and with a 79” reach, the Swede uses his length to control the fight, peppering opponents with strikes from afar. Gustafsson’s SLpM is a solid 4.12, his SApM 3.60 and he lands at a 40% frequency. His career takedown defence rate of 86% is off-the-charts good, especially considering the elite wrestlers he’s faced in recent years.
If you think recent losses and turning 30 means Gustafsson has passed his peak there may be value in betting the underdog.
Teixeira’s striking numbers are similar to Gustafsson’s; 4.03 SLpM, 3.33 SApM and 44% striking accuracy. Where he differs is a stronger reliance on his submission game. He goes for takedowns more often and lands them more often (54% takedown accuracy to Gustafsson’s 40%). Teixeira would love nothing more than to get the fight to the ground, but there’s a real question about whether he can make that happen. That’s why the markets are favouring Gustafsson.
The odds say Gustafsson (1.384*). He has the height and reach advantage, not to mention the home crowd advantage in Stockholm and history has regarded him as the superior fighter. Gustafsson’s control of a fight on its feet is a tough nut to crack; only elite wrestlers have managed to do it and Teixeira (3.260*) isn’t that.
If that paragraph makes sense to you Gustafsson is your man, but there are reasons to disagree with it. Teixeira’s record shows he’s no slouch, while Gustafsson’s biggest win over his last five fights was over Jimi Manuwa, so nothing can be assumed about the maintenance of his skills. If you think Gustafsson is the same guy who barely lost in title fights against Jones and Cormier, he’s your man.
If, however, you think those recent losses and turning 30 means Gustafsson’s passed his peak, there may be value in betting the underdog. Either way, there’s a lot on the line in this headliner for a free fight card. The world will watch and if you pick right, you’ll profit.
Use this expert insight and bet with the best UFC odds online at Pinnacle.
Matchup | Open | Closing range | Movement | Event | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Future Events | |||||||
Jon Jones | +130 | +110 | ... | +115 | -8%▼ | Future Events | |
Francis Ngannou | -160 | -145 | ... | -137 | |||
Future Events | |||||||
Jon Jones | -150 | -150 | ... | -150 | Future Events | ||
Stipe Miocic | +130 | +130 | ... | +130 | |||
Future Events | |||||||
Jon Jones | -375 | -200 | ... | -115 | +24%▲ | Future Events | |
Israel Adesanya | +285 | -105 | ... | +160 | |||
Future Events | |||||||
Jon Jones | -250 | -250 | ... | -250 | Future Events | ||
Brock Lesnar | +210 | +210 | ... | +210 | |||
Future Events | |||||||
Jon Jones | n/a | Future Events | |||||
Jan Blachowicz | n/a | ||||||
UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes Feb 8th 2020 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -400 | -556 | ... | -405 | -3.3%▼ | UFC 247: Jones vs. Reyes | |
Dominick Reyes | +300 | +285 | ... | +375 | Feb 8th 2020 | ||
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos Jul 6th 2019 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -850 | -714 | ... | -525 | +4.2%▲ | UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos | |
Thiago Santos | +625 | +355 | ... | +513 | Jul 6th 2019 | ||
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith Mar 2nd 2019 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -500 | -909 | ... | -700 | -6.4%▼ | UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith | |
Anthony Smith | +350 | +450 | ... | +587 | Mar 2nd 2019 | ||
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 Dec 29th 2018 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -200 | -340 | ... | -160 | -11.8%▼ | UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 | |
Alexander Gustafsson | +170 | +125 | ... | +265 | Dec 29th 2018 | ||
UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 Jul 29th 2017 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -185 | -335 | ... | -265 | -16%▼ | UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2 | |
Daniel Cormier | +150 | +195 | ... | +274 | Jul 29th 2017 | ||
UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux Apr 23rd 2016 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -675 | -750 | ... | -530 | +0.2%▲ | UFC 197: Jones vs. Saint Preux | |
Ovince St. Preux | +450 | +355 | ... | +561 | Apr 23rd 2016 | ||
UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier Jan 3rd 2015 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -170 | -240 | ... | -179 | -6.9%▼ | UFC 182: Jones vs. Cormier | |
Daniel Cormier | +145 | +161 | ... | +185 | Jan 3rd 2015 | ||
UFC 172: Jones vs. Teixeira Apr 26th 2014 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -600 | -625 | ... | -425 | +3.2%▲ | UFC 172: Jones vs. Teixeira | |
Glover Teixeira | +425 | +315 | ... | +405 | Apr 26th 2014 | ||
UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson Sep 21st 2013 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -800 | -1000 | ... | -701 | -0.8%▼ | UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson | |
Alexander Gustafsson | +500 | +485 | ... | +660 | Sep 21st 2013 | ||
UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen Apr 27th 2013 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -600 | -1100 | ... | -750 | -5%▼ | UFC 159: Jones vs. Sonnen | |
Chael Sonnen | +400 | +500 | ... | +800 | Apr 27th 2013 | ||
UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort Sep 22nd 2012 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -925 | -1000 | ... | -750 | +0.9%▲ | UFC 152: Jones vs. Belfort | |
Vitor Belfort | +625 | +475 | ... | +700 | Sep 22nd 2012 | ||
UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans Apr 21st 2012 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -625 | -562 | ... | -435 | +3.4%▲ | UFC 145: Jones vs. Evans | |
Rashad Evans | +425 | +260 | ... | +470 | Apr 21st 2012 | ||
UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida Dec 10th 2011 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -375 | -645 | ... | -475 | -6.5%▼ | UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida | |
Lyoto Machida | +275 | +310 | ... | +445 | Dec 10th 2011 | ||
UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage Sep 24th 2011 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -305 | -516 | ... | -500 | -10.9%▼ | UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage | |
Quinton Jackson | +225 | +300 | ... | +436 | Sep 24th 2011 | ||
UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones Mar 19th 2011 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -155 | -223 | ... | -167 | -10.2%▼ | UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones | |
Mauricio Rua | +125 | +120 | ... | +199 | Mar 19th 2011 | ||
UFC 126: Silva vs. Belfort Feb 5th 2011 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -230 | -325 | ... | -270 | -7.2%▼ | UFC 126: Silva vs. Belfort | |
Ryan Bader | +170 | +210 | ... | +258 | Feb 5th 2011 | ||
UFC On Versus 2 Aug 1st 2010 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -600 | -800 | ... | -600 | -2.4%▼ | UFC On Versus 2 | |
Vladimir Matyushenko | +400 | +390 | ... | +602 | Aug 1st 2010 | ||
UFC on Versus 1: Vera vs. Jones Mar 21st 2010 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -200 | -250 | ... | -220 | -5.1%▼ | UFC on Versus 1: Vera vs. Jones | |
Brandon Vera | +160 | +175 | ... | +215 | Mar 21st 2010 | ||
UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale Dec 5th 2009 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -185 | -305 | ... | -265 | -13.8%▼ | UFC: The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale | |
Matt Hamill | +155 | +200 | ... | +245 | Dec 5th 2009 | ||
UFC 100 Jul 11th 2009 | |||||||
Jon Jones | -500 | -550 | ... | -340 | +2.4%▲ | UFC 100 | |
Jake O Brien | +300 | +260 | ... | +350 | Jul 11th 2009 | ||
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 Jan 31st 2009 | |||||||
Jon Jones | +155 | +135 | ... | +162 | -5.4%▼ | UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 | |
Stephan Bonnar | -185 | -227 | ... | -145 | Jan 31st 2009 | ||
UFC 87: Seek And Destroy Aug 9th 2008 | |||||||
Jon Jones | +285 | +160 | ... | +176 | -43.1%▼ | UFC 87: Seek And Destroy | |
Andre Gusmao | -355 | -250 | ... | -196 | Aug 9th 2008 |